Die Rettung des griechischen Schuldensünders

MÜNCHEN – Die gegenwärtige Schwäche des Euro hat eine Erklärung: Griechenland. Mit einem Leistungsbilanzdefizit von 14 % des BIP lag das Land zuletzt auf dem zweiten Platz in der Eurozone nach Zypern. Ende 2009 betrug die griechische Schuldenquote 113 %. Da das diesjährige Haushaltsdefizit nach offizieller Schätzung auf mehr als 12 % eines schrumpfenden BIP anwachsen wird, wird auch die Schuldenquote bis Ende 2010 auf 125 % empor schnellen und damit den höchsten Wert in der Eurozone aufweisen.

Viele internationale Anleger versuchen nun, aus dem Euro auszusteigen oder wenigstens einen Bogen um die griechischen Staatsanleihen zu machen. Um diese Investoren bei Laune zu halten, musste ihnen Griechenland zunehmend höhere Zinsen anbieten. Im Januar lag der Zinsaufschlag gegenüber vergleichbaren deutschen Anleihen bei 2,73   Prozentpunkten. Bleibt es dabei, wird Griechenland für seine 271 Milliarden Euro Schulden jährlich 7,4 Milliarden Euro mehr an Zinsen zu bezahlen haben, als es Deutschland für die gleichen Schulden tun müsste.

Das Problem ist allerdings nicht nur dieser Zinsaufschlag, sondern auch die Gefahr, dass Griechenland es nicht schaffen könnte, neue Anleihen zu platzieren. Wenn es dem Land nicht gelingt, im laufenden Jahr jene 53 Milliarden Euro aufzubringen, die es zur Ablösung seiner auslaufenden Altschulden braucht, ist das Land pleite, von den 30 Milliarden Euro, die vermutlich an neuen Schulden anfallen werden, ganz abgesehen.

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