Осуществление Мечты Саудовской Аравии

ИРВИНГ, ТЕХАС – Саудовская Аравия хочет все: спасти ОПЕК, достичь диверсификации доходов и индустриализации, и сохранить свою долю на рынке сырой нефти, нефтепродуктов, нефтехимии и сжиженного природного газа (СПГ). Сланцевую энергетику в Соединенных Штатах в значительной степени определит то, как удастся Саудовцам добиться вышеназванных успехов.

Сланцевая революция США разделила ОПЕК согласно качеству сырой нефти ее членов. Экспортеры легкой малосернистой нефти - такие, как Алжир, Ангола и Нигерия - потеряли почти все свои доли рынка в США, в то время как экспортеры высокосернистой или тяжелой неочищенной нефти, включая Саудовскую Аравию и Кувейт, потеряли немного.

Потому что, практически вся сырая нефть, добываемая в странах Персидского залива - высокосернистая, и большая часть мирового профицита - малосернистая, любое сокращение производства Саудовской Аравией и ее соседями, не повысит обратно цены и не восстановит баланс на нефтяном рынке. Единственным способом это сделать - и предотвратить распад ОПЕК - будет сокращение производства легкой малосернистой нефти, в том числе американскими производителями, которые, таким образом, потеряют долю рынка. Если бы это произошло, можно было бы ожидать относительно быстрого роста цен на нефть.

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