沙特之石油霸主梦

发自德克萨斯州欧文市——沙特希望占尽所有好处:挽救石油输出国组织(欧佩克),实现收入多元化和产业化,保持其原油、石油产品、石油化工和液态天然气的市场份额。而沙特人的愿望是否真的能实现,主要取决于美国的油页岩能源行业。

美国页岩气革命将欧佩克成员国依据各自的原油质量分成了三六九等。当沙特阿拉伯和科威特等重质原油出口者只失去了很少一部分美国市场份额时,轻质低硫原油出口者——如阿尔及利亚、安哥拉和尼日利亚——几乎丢失了所有在美市场份额。

由于几乎所有海湾国家生产的原油都是重质油,而全球富余的大多是轻质油,因此无论沙特及其邻国如何减产都不会驱动价格回归和恢复石油市场的平衡。要实现上述目标并防止欧佩克解体,唯一的办法可能是包括美国在内的生产商减少轻质原油生产并因此失去市场份额。只要能做到这点,油价将有望再次急升。

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