俄罗斯的现实

        从表面上看,俄罗斯具有大国列强的许多特征。它拥有大规模原子武器库;是联合国安理会常任理事国;拥有大量的石油和其他矿产储备;近来经济增长强劲;尽管只是前苏联四分之三大小,但其领土面积仍然大于其他任何国家。

        但是,进一步观察就可以揭示一个不同的俄罗斯。其大部分财富反映的是增加的能源价值,而非生产性经济活动。俄罗斯的武装力量在可以使用调遣的军事力量上无所作为。该国的人口数量小于巴基斯坦,而且每年减少50万人,其广袤国土的大部分地区荒无人烟。由于酗酒、犯罪、毒品、疾病以及糟糕的公共健康体系,其男性寿命预期低于60岁。

        所有这些表明,俄罗斯即使不是外强中干,也称不上一个强国。尽管其制造麻烦绰绰有余,但在国际舞台上取得任何积极成就委实勉为其难。莫斯科的决定可以影响国际能源价格、伊朗和北朝鲜的核计划以及恐怖份子的成功。无论好坏,俄罗斯依然不可低估。但是,俄罗斯究竟有多重要?

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