Pro Russia rally St Basil Cathedral Anna Sergeeva/ZumaPress

Warum die Sanktionen gegen Russland nicht funktionieren

MOSKAU – Die Politik des Westens gegenüber Russland beruht auf der Annahme, dass man Präsident Wladimir Putins Regime mit anhaltendem Druck zu Zugeständnissen bewegen oder gar seinen Zerfall bewirken wird. Nichts könnte von der Wahrheit weiter entfernt sein.

Im Hinblick auf die Wirksamkeit der Sanktionen des Westens lautet die These, dass sich die russische Öffentlichkeit, insbesondere die finanzielle und politische Elite, im Gefolge drastischer wirtschaftlicher Verschlechterungen aufgrund der Sanktionen gegen den Kreml wenden würde. Putin werde es nicht gelingen, dem zunehmenden Dissens in wohlhabenden städtischen Gebieten und in den Reihen der wachsenden Mittelschicht des Landes standzuhalten.

Unterdessen, so die Annahme, werde auch militärischer Druck – in Form möglicher Lieferungen von tödlichen Waffen an die Ukraine  – die gewöhnlichen Russen gegen Putin mobilisieren. Da diese wohl keine Lust haben, ihre Söhne für den Donbass sterben zu sehen, werden sie eine Anti-Kriegsbewegung ins Leben rufen, die Putin zwingt, seine territorialen Ambitionen zu zügeln. Wenn der Kreml Druck von oben und unten zu spüren bekommt, wird er seine Politik ändern und vielleicht sogar die Demokratisierung einleiten müssen.

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