Russlands ewige Inflation

Was das Finanzmanagement anbelangt, ändert sich nichts im ewigen Russland. Jahr für Jahr macht die Russische Zentralbank (RZB) das Wetter, die schlechte Ernte oder andere nicht monetäre Faktoren für ihre schwache Leistung bei der Senkung der Inflationsrate verantwortlich.

Anders als viele andere Entwicklungsmärkte und Übergangsländer in den Neunzigern hat Russland einen als Anker dienenden festen Wechselkurs nicht zu Gunsten eines Systems zur Inflationssteuerung als Wegweiser für seine Geldpolitik aufgegeben. Dies hat dazu geführt, dass sich im Zeitraum seit der Finanzkrise 1998 ernste Probleme für die Geld- und Wechselkurspolitik ergeben haben. Angesichts eines Zahlungsbilanzüberschusses – größtenteils dank hoher Ölpreise – gibt sich das Finanzprogramm 2005 der RZB ausweichend: Die Verringerung der Inflation genießt Priorität, die Steuerung des Wechselkurses zur Unerstützung des Wachstums allerdings auch.

In den Vereinigten Staaten, um ein Beispiel zu nennen, wo die Notenbank ihre antiinflatorische Glaubwürdigkeit aufgebaut hat, funktioniert dieser „einfach machen“ Ansatz gut. Die Erfolgsbilanz der RZB seit 1992 hat hingegen nur wenig dazu beitragen, die Inflationserwartungen zu stabilisieren und Geschäftsleute, Investoren, Regierungsvertreter und russische Normalbürger davon zu überzeugen, dass sie sich ernsthaft darauf konzentriert, das Preiswachstum im Zaum zu halten.

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