金融风暴将临俄罗斯

华盛顿特区—当今,全世界正遭受着一次金融危机的重创,但俄罗斯更是面临着一场完美风暴。俄罗斯的股市自5月19日以来如自由落体般暴跌60%,市值损失9000亿美金。而且这种下跌趋势还在加剧。其结果是俄罗斯的经济增长率也会突然猛降。

有一个问题是,在长期的财政审慎之后,俄罗斯政府的表现及不称职。自1999年以来,俄罗斯的平均经济年增长率为7%。在拥有巨额经常项目和预算盈余的情况下,到今年7月为止它已经积累了6000亿美金的外汇储备。其公共债务几乎偿清。但这个孕育了俄罗斯经济成功的开放经济体需要英明政策的维护才能继续成功。

最初的美国金融危机几乎没有影响到俄罗斯,但全球经济放缓导致油价和其他商品价格自7月以来降幅超过了三分之一。这是沉重的一击。然而所有其他的打击则是(俄罗斯)咎由自取。俄罗斯金融危机极富戏剧性,简直可以被描述为一出五幕悲剧。

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