روسيا والانهيار المالي القادم

واشنطن ـ اليوم، يمر العالم بالكامل بأزمة مالية مهولة، ولكن في روسيا تجمعت نُـذُر العاصفة الكاملة. فسوق البورصة الروسية تشهد هبوطاً حاداً، حيث سجلت مؤشراتها انخفاضاً بلغ 60% منذ التاسع عشر من مايو/أيار، وهي خسارة تقدر بحوالي 900 مليار دولار. وما زال الهبوط في تسارع متواصل. ونتيجة لهذا فمن المرجح أن تسجل معدلات نمو الاقتصاد الروسي هبوطاً حاداً ومفاجئاً.

المشكلة هنا أن الحكومة الروسية، وبعد فترة طويلة من التعقل المالي، أظهرت قدراً غير عادي من الطيش والقصور. كانت روسيا تتمتع بمتوسط نمو سنوي بلغ 7% منذ العام 1999. وبفضل الفائض الضخم في الحساب الجاري والميزانية، تمكنت روسيا من جمع احتياطي من العملات الدولية بلغ 600 مليار دولار في شهر يوليو/تموز. كما نجحت في إزالة ديونها العامة بالكامل تقريباً. بيد أن الاقتصاد المفتوح الذي جلب على روسيا هذا النجاح الاقتصادي كان يتطلب تبني سياسات حكيمة لكي يستمر.

لم تمس الأزمة المالية الأميركية الأولية روسيا إلا بالكاد، ولكن التباطؤ الاقتصادي العالمي كان سبباً في انحدار أسعار النفط وغيره من السلع الأولية بمقدار تجاوز الثلث منذ يوليو/تموز، وهو ما شكَّل ضربة ضخمة للاقتصاد الروسي. أم كل الضربات الأخرى فقد جلبتها روسيا على نفسها. اتخذت الأزمة المالية الروسية هيئة درامية قوية، وأفضل ما نستطيع أن نصفها به أنها مأساة من خمسة فصول.

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