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The Incredible Bouncing Ruble

The Russian ruble's return to its pre-war exchange rate should not be mistaken as a sign of strength or resilience. Rather, the currency has benefited from factors that will eventually become major drags on both the federal budget and the real economy.

PARIS – After plummeting in value following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ruble has clawed its way back to its pre-war levels. But this should be of little comfort to the Kremlin, because the factors that drove the ruble’s rebound augur additional problems for Russia’s economic performance.