俄罗斯威胁气数将尽

布鲁塞尔—对欧洲来说,2014年的定性事件是俄罗斯吞并克里米亚和军事干预东乌克兰顿巴斯地区。克里姆林宫的行为直接挑战了六十多年来欧洲的关键指导原则,特别是不再使用武力改变国家边界的原则。但俄罗斯的侵略性外交政策难以为继。

一个时常出现的论点是,俄罗斯在对其所认定的欧盟和北约入侵其“近邻”的行为做出反应。但历史告诉我们一个更加简单的解释:十年来石油价格的稳步上涨培养了俄罗斯的野心,使它准备抓住一切机会部署其军事力量。

事实上,40年前的苏联也有过类似的经验,当时,长时期的石油收入增加助长了日益激进的外交政策,其顶峰就是1979年入侵阿富汗。1973年首次石油禁运后,油价翻了四倍,而20世纪70年代大规模储量的发现极大地增加了苏联石油产出。结果,从1965年到1980年,苏联石油产量飙升近20倍。

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