Een nieuw Chinees-Russisch bondgenootschap?

CAMBRIDGE – Sommige analisten denken dat in 2014 een nieuw geopolitiek tijdperk in de stijl van de Koude Oorlog is begonnen. De invasie van Oekraïne door de Russische president Vladimir Poetin en de annexatie van de Krim werden door Europa en de Verenigde Staten tegemoet getreden met zware economische sancties, waardoor de banden tussen Rusland en het Westen werden verzwakt en het Kremlin graag de banden met China wilde aanhalen. De vraag is of Rusland erin zal slagen een echt bondgenootschap met de Volksrepubliek aan te gaan.

Op het eerste gezicht lijkt dit plausibel. Volgens de traditionele theorie van het machtsevenwicht zou het Amerikaanse overwicht op het gebied van de machtsmiddelen moeten worden gecompenseerd door een partnerschap tussen China en Rusland.

Misschien nog overtuigender is dat er een historisch precedent lijkt te bestaan voor zo'n partnerschap. In de jaren vijftig waren China en de Sovjet-Unie geallieerd tegen de VS. Na de door de Amerikaanse president Richard Nixon geïnitieerde opening richting China in 1972 verschoof het evenwicht, doordat de VS en China gingen samenwerken om een halt toe te roepen aan wat zij zagen als een gevaarlijke toename van de macht van de Sovjet-Unie.

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