Decidir en Chipre tirando los dados

PRINCETON – La tarea nunca iba a ser fácil: imponer pérdidas de unos 5.800 millones de euros (7.500 millones de dólares) a los prestamistas del Gobierno de Chipre y a los depositantes en los bancos del país. Y ahora esa medida ha conducido a Europa a su más reciente callejón sin salida.

En unas negociaciones maratonianas, el Gobierno de Chipre, con la supervisión de la troika (la Comisión Europea, el Banco Central Europeo y el Fondo Monetario Internacional), acordó un “impuesto” de una sola vez a los depósitos bancarios, pero, pese a una enmienda encaminada a eximir las cuentas de menos de 20.000 euros, el Parlamento de Chipre ha rechazado por una mayoría abrumadora ese plan, con lo que ha dejado a Chipre –y a Europa– en el limbo.

En realidad, los grandes depositantes no son diferentes de los titulares de bonos prioritarios y el recorte propuesto era un pequeño –si bien digno de beneplácito– paso adelante, pero, como se quedó corto, siguió habiendo un agujero. Había otras opciones. Lee Buchheit, el veterano experto en deuda soberana que debería haber participado en las negociaciones, y Mitu Gulati, de la Universidad Duke, han propuesto una elegante “reestructuración” de los 15.000 millones de euros de deuda soberana de Chipre que reduciría instantáneamente la presión financiera que padece el país, pero esas consideraciones habían dejado de estar sobre la mesa mucho antes de que se iniciaran las deliberaciones.

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