El excedente de estancamiento de Europa

LONDRES – Mientras el resto del mundo se recupera de la Gran Recesión de 2008-2009, Europa se está estancando. Se espera que el crecimiento de la eurozona sea de 1,7% el próximo año. ¿Qué se puede hacer al respecto?

Una solución es un euro más débil. A comienzos de este mes, el máximo responsable ejecutivo de Airbus solicitó una acción drástica para reducir el valor del euro frente al dólar en aproximadamente 10%, de un tipo de cambio "demente" de US$1,35 a algo entre US$1,20 y US$1,25. El Banco Central Europeo recortó sus tasas de depósito de 0 a -0,1%, cobrándoles en efecto a los bancos por guardar dinero en el Banco Central. Pero estas medidas tuvieron escaso efecto en los mercados de tipos de cambio.

Eso es así principalmente porque no se está haciendo nada para impulsar la demanda agregada. El Reino Unido, Estados Unidos y Japón aumentaron su masa monetaria para reanimar sus economías, mientras que la devaluación de la moneda se convirtió en una parte esencial del mecanismo de recuperación. El presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, suele insinuar una flexibilización cuantitativa -el mes pasado, repitió que "si fuera necesario, actuaremos rápidamente con una flexibilización de la política monetaria"-, pero su eterna falta de compromiso se asemeja a la de Mark Carney, el presidente del Banco de Inglaterra, a quien un ex ministro de gobierno del Reino Unido recientemente comparó con un "novio poco confiable".

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now