El excedente de estancamiento de Europa

LONDRES – Mientras el resto del mundo se recupera de la Gran Recesión de 2008-2009, Europa se está estancando. Se espera que el crecimiento de la eurozona sea de 1,7% el próximo año. ¿Qué se puede hacer al respecto?

Una solución es un euro más débil. A comienzos de este mes, el máximo responsable ejecutivo de Airbus solicitó una acción drástica para reducir el valor del euro frente al dólar en aproximadamente 10%, de un tipo de cambio "demente" de US$1,35 a algo entre US$1,20 y US$1,25. El Banco Central Europeo recortó sus tasas de depósito de 0 a -0,1%, cobrándoles en efecto a los bancos por guardar dinero en el Banco Central. Pero estas medidas tuvieron escaso efecto en los mercados de tipos de cambio.

Eso es así principalmente porque no se está haciendo nada para impulsar la demanda agregada. El Reino Unido, Estados Unidos y Japón aumentaron su masa monetaria para reanimar sus economías, mientras que la devaluación de la moneda se convirtió en una parte esencial del mecanismo de recuperación. El presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, suele insinuar una flexibilización cuantitativa -el mes pasado, repitió que "si fuera necesario, actuaremos rápidamente con una flexibilización de la política monetaria"-, pero su eterna falta de compromiso se asemeja a la de Mark Carney, el presidente del Banco de Inglaterra, a quien un ex ministro de gobierno del Reino Unido recientemente comparó con un "novio poco confiable".

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