Safia Osman/Flickr

الطريق إلى الاستثمار الكامل

لندن ــ يبدو أن شبحاً ما يطارد وزارات المالية والبنوك المركزية في الغرب ــ شبح الركود المادي. فماذا لو لم يكن التعافي من الركود الاقتصادي في الفترة 2008-2013 مستداما؟ وماذا لو نضبت مصادر النمو الاقتصادي ــ ليس بشكل مؤقت بل دائم؟

الواقع أن هذا التشاؤم الجديد لا يأتي من الماركسيين، الذين ظلوا يبحثون دوماً عن العلامات التي توشي بانهيار الرأسمالية، بل هو قادم من قلب المؤسسة الصانعة للسياسات: لاري سمرز، وزير الخزانة الأميركي السابق في عهد بل كلينتون، وكبير خبراء الاقتصاد في كل المؤسسات الكبرى تقريباً في زمن أو آخر.

تتلخص حجة سمرز في التالي: إذا كانت الربحية المتوقعة من الاستثمار في انحدار، فلابد من خفض أسعار الفائدة بنفس القدر. ولكن أسعار الفائدة من غير الممكن أن تنخفض إلى ما دون الصفر (بل قد تظل عالقة فوق مستوى الصفر إذا كانت الرغبة قوية في بناء أرصدة نقدية). وقد يؤدي هذا إلى هبوط توقعات الربح إلى ما دون تكاليف الاقتراض.

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