مصادر السلوك الروسي

نيويورك ــ لا ينبغي لمدة محددة من الزمن أن تمر قبل أن تخلي الصحافة السبيل للتاريخ، ولكن المؤرخين يكتبون عادة وقد استفادوا من ميزة المنظور الذي يعكس مرور سنوات أو عقود أو حتى قرون من الزمان. فالوقت ضروري لخروج المعلومات إلى النور، وكتابة المذكرات، وكشف الأحداث عن مدى أهميتها. فما يبدو تافهاً نسبياً الآن قد يتبين لنا في المستقبل أنه كان أبعد ما يكون عن التفاهة، تماماً كما قد تتضاءل أهمية ما يلوح الآن عظيم الأهمية.

ولكن الغرب لا يتمتع بترف الانتظار حتى يتسنى له فهم الأحداث الأخيرة في أوكرانيا، ويرجع هذا ببساطة إلى عدم وجود ما يضمن أن ما حدث في شبه جزيرة القرم فريد من نوعه. فالآلاف من القوات الروسية لا تزال متمركزة على حدود أوكرانيا الشرقية؛ وبمرور كل يوم تخرج تقارير جديدة عن اضطرابات داخل أوكرانيا، يزعم البعض أنها بتحريض من روسيا.

وبالتالي فنحن في احتياج إلى التحرك السريع لفهم ما تنبئنا به الأحداث الأخيرة عن روسيا ورئيسها فلاديمير بوتن، والنظام الدولي. ولا يقل أهمية عن هذا أن نطبق الدروس المستفادة بسرعة.

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