أي قرن آسيوي؟

نيويورك ــ لقد أصبح من قبيل الابتذال التنبؤ بأن آسيا سوف تهيمن على القرن الحادي والعشرين. فهو توقع آمن، لأن آسيا تُعَد بالفعل موطناً لنحو 60% من سكان العالم وتمثل نحو 25% من الناتج الاقتصادي العالمي. وآسيا أيضاً المنطقة حيث تتفاعل بعض الدول الأكثر نفوذاً وتأثيراً في هذا القرن ــ بما في ذلك الصين والهند واليابان وروسيا وكوريا الجنوبية وإندونيسيا والولايات المتحدة.

ولكن الإشارة إلى أهمية آسيا المتنامية لا تنبئنا بشيء عن شخصيتها. فقد نجد أنفسنا إزاء قرنين آسيويين مختلفين تماما، والقرن الذي سيبرز من بينهما سوف يخلف عواقب عميقة بالنسبة لشعوب وحكومات المنطقة ــ والعالم.

ويتخلص أحد الاحتمالين بالنسبة للمستقبل في آسيا المألوفة نسبيا: المنطقة التي يستمر اقتصادها في التمتع بمستويات قوية من النمو والقادرة على تجنب الصراعات بين بلدانها.

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