Der Anfang vom Ende der lockeren Geldpolitik

LONDON – Das Ausscheiden des US-Notenbankchefs Ben Bernanke hat Spekulationen angeheizt, wann und wie die Fed und andere Zentralbanken ihre gigantischen Ankäufe langfristiger Anleihen, auch als quantitative Lockerung (QE) bekannt, zurückschrauben werden. Beobachter greifen begierig alle neuen Wirtschaftsdaten auf, um Prognosen über die Fortsetzung der quantitativen Lockerung oder aber ihr rascheres Auslaufen zu treffen. Den Folgen, die jedes der beiden Ergebnisse für verschiedene Wirtschaftsakteure hätte, muss allerdings verstärkte Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet werden.

An der Größenordnung der QE-Programme besteht kein Zweifel. Seit Beginn der Finanzkrise haben die US-Notenbank, die Europäische Zentralbank, die Bank von England und die japanische Zentralbank quantitative Lockerung genutzt, um ihre Volkswirtschaften mit zusätzlicher Liquidität in Höhe von vier Billionen US-Dollar zu versorgen. Wenn diese Programme auslaufen, könnten Regierungen, einige Schwellenmärkte und einige Unternehmen in eine prekäre Lage geraten. Sie müssen sich vorbereiten.

Studien des McKinsey Global Institute zufolge haben die US-Regierung und Regierungen im Euroraum von 2007 bis 2012 fast 1,6 Billionen US-Dollar durch niedrigere Zinsen gespart. Dieser Geldregen hat höhere Staatsausgaben und weniger Einschränkungen ermöglicht. Würden die Leitzinsen wieder das Niveau von 2007 erreichen, könnten die Ausgaben der Regierungen zur Bedienung ihrer Schuldtitel, unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen, um 20% steigen.

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