Die Erfahrungswissensökonomie

CAMBRIDGE, MASS. – Fast alle reichen Länder sind reich, weil sie den technologischen Fortschritt ausnutzen. Sie haben den größten Teil ihrer Erwerbsbevölkerung aus der Landwirtschaft in die Städte verlagert, wo sich Knowhow leichter gemeinsam nutzen lässt. Ihre Familien haben weniger Kinder und bilden sie intensiver aus und erleichtern dadurch weitere technologische Fortschritte.

Die armen Länder müssen einen ähnlichen Wandel durchlaufen, um reich zu werden: Sie müssen die landwirtschaftliche Beschäftigung reduzieren, städtischer werden, weniger Kinder haben und die Kinder, die sie haben, länger schulisch ausbilden. Wenn sie dies tun, wird sich die Tür zum Wohlstand auch für sie öffnen. Und passiert das nicht bereits?

Lassen Sie uns beispielsweise Brasilien im Jahre 2010 mit dem Großbritannien des Jahres 1960 vergleichen. Brasilien war 2010 zu 84.3% städtisch geprägt; seine Fruchtbarkeitsrate betrug 1,8 Geburten pro Frau; seine Erwerbsbevölkerung verfügte über eine Schulbildung von im Schnitt 7,2 Jahren, und Universitätsabsolventen machten 5,2% der potenziellen Arbeitnehmerschaft aus. Dies sind bessere gesellschaftliche Indikatorwerte, als Großbritannien sie 1960 aufwies. Damals war Großbritannien zu 78,4% verstädtert; seine Fruchtbarkeitsrate lag bei 2,7; seine Erwerbsbevölkerung hatte durchschnittlich sechs Jahre Schulbildung, und seine Universitätsabsolventen machten weniger als 2% der potenziellen Arbeitnehmer aus.

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