寻求趋同

美国剑桥—一个关于世界经济的谜题是,200年来,世界上的富国增长比穷国更快,兰特·普莱切特(Lant Pritchett)恰如其分地称之为《分化,大时代》(Divergence, Big Time)。1776年亚当·斯密协作《国富论》时,世界最富裕国家——大概是荷兰吧——人均收入约为最贫穷国家的四倍。两个世纪后,荷兰比中国富40倍,比印度富24倍,比泰国富十倍。

但是,在过去三十年里,这一趋势被逆转了。如今,荷兰只比印度富11倍,比中国和泰国勉强富4倍。观察道这一趋势逆转的诺贝尔奖获得者迈克尔·斯宾塞( Michael Spence)指出,世界将走向《下一次大趋同》(The Next Convergence)。

但一些国家仍走在分化的道路上。1980年,荷兰分别比尼加拉瓜、科特迪瓦和肯尼亚富5.8倍、7.7倍和15倍,而在2012年,分别比上述三国富10.5倍、21.1倍和24.4倍。

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