Борьба за господство на Ближнем Востоке

БЕРЛИН – Последние иллюзии по поводу явления, до недавнего времени называвшегося «арабской весной», возможно, уже исчезли. Военный переворот в Египте сделал абсолютно понятными простые, угнетающие варианты будущего страны. Вопрос теперь не в борьбе между демократией и диктатурой, а, скорее, в борьбе между (исламистской) революцией и (военной) контрреволюцией – между диктатурой и диктатурой.

Это относится не только к Египту, но и почти ко всему остальному Ближнему Востоку. И, поскольку обе стороны сделали выбор в пользу вооруженной борьбы, это приведет к гражданской войне, вне зависимости от решений, которые примут в Брюсселе действующие с благими намерениями министры иностранных дел Европейского Союза. Исламисты не могут победить военным путем, а генералы не могут победить политическим путем, поэтому тем более неизбежным становится возвращение диктатуры, рост насилия и возникновение серии гуманитарных катастроф.

Для обеих сторон единственным приемлемым вариантом является полное господство и контроль, хотя ни у одной из них нет даже элементарного понимания того, как можно модернизировать экономику и общество. Поэтому, какая бы сторона ни взяла верх, авторитаризм и экономический застой возобладают снова.

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