A Luta pelo Domínio do Médio Oriente

BERLIM – As últimas ilusões sobre o que se apelidava, até recentemente, de “Primavera Árabe” poderão ter desaparecido. O golpe militar no Egipto aclarou as simples e deprimentes alternativas para o futuro do país: já não se trata de escolher entre uma democracia e uma ditadura, mas antes entre uma revolução (Islamita) e uma contra-revolução (militar) – uma ditadura ou uma ditadura.

Isto aplica-se não apenas ao Egipto, mas a quase todo o Grande Médio Oriente. E, porque ambas as partes optaram pela luta armada, o resultado será a guerra civil, independentemente do que os bem-intencionados ministros dos negócios estrangeiros da União Europeia decidirem em Bruxelas. Os Islamitas não podem vencer militarmente, tal como os generais não podem vencer politicamente, o que quase certamente garantirá o retorno da ditadura, da violência significativa, e de uma série de desastres humanitários.

Para ambas as partes, o domínio e o controlo absolutos são a única opção, embora nenhuma tenha sequer um entendimento rudimentar de como modernizar a economia e a sociedade. Portanto, qualquer que seja a parte que prevaleça, o autoritarismo e a estagnação económica prevalecerão mais uma vez.

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