人民币需要稳健

纽黑文—放眼全球,货币战争肆虐,而中国可谓首当其冲。人民币在过去几年中大幅升值,出口出现下滑,通缩风险日益增加。在这样的环境下,许多人认为中国改变货币政策、促使人民币贬值是最合乎逻辑的动作。大错特错。

事实上,随着中国开始追求旨在确保后续发展的结构改革,强迫贬值是最不该做的事情。对于全球经济,人民币贬值也十分不妥。

表面上,当前的局面颇可忧虑——特别是从货币角度,即中国价格相对世界其他地区价格的变化看。根据国际清算银行(BIS)的数据,中国实际有效汇率——经通胀调整的、贸易加权的人民币相对中国贸易伙伴的横截面价值——在过去四年中升值了26%。

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