Refugiados de la guerra cambiaria, únanse

BUENOS AIRES – La guerra cambiaria global se asemeja a una guerra convencional en dos sentidos importantes: por un lado, una confrontación sobre los desequilibrios estructurales entre dos grandes rivales –China y Estados Unidos- ha llevado a los aliados más pequeños a la incómoda situación de tener que tomar partido por uno u otro lado; por el otro, terceros no directamente involucrados están sufriendo daño colateral de ambos bandos en conflicto.

Las economías de rápido crecimiento de América Latina son particularmente vulnerables, obligadas como están a enfrentar la inflexibilidad del tipo de cambio de China y el impacto de la devaluación del dólar que surge a partir de la política monetaria expansiva de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos.

La mecánica es familiar: la liquidez en dólares derrama hacia los países emergentes en busca de rendimientos más altos, ejerciendo presión alcista sobre sus monedas. Brasil, Chile y Colombia, entre otros, hoy enfrentan las poderosas fuerzas de la apreciación cambiaria. Esta presión está acompañada, en los países latinoamericanos ricos en recursos naturales, por el incremento en los precios de las materias primas causado por la búsqueda de rendimientos y la caída del valor del dólar.

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