Ripresa, interrotta

NEW YORK – Da quando la recessione del 2008-2009 si è attenuata a partire da metà 2009 – soprattutto dopo la rivelazione dei massicci problemi di debito pubblico scoppiati in Grecia, Irlanda e in altri paesi d’Europa – la maggior parte dei governi appartenenti al G7 hanno invertito le precedenti posizioni anti-recessive. Con l’importante eccezione degli Stati Uniti, i leader del G7 spingono, da metà 2010, per un urgente consolidamento fiscale, annullando di fatto i precedenti sforzi di ripresa, e facendo pressioni per misure di austerità tese a risanare i conti pubblici, malgrado la debolezza, l’asperità e l’incertezza della ripresa economica.

Probabilmente il consolidamento fiscale basato sull’austerità fallirà, perché il migliore terreno per ottenere bilanci pubblici sostenibili è una forte crescita economica. In effetti, secondo la logica di consolidamento fiscale, quei paesi che si sono ripresi con vigore, dovrebbero gradualmente porre fine alle misure di stimolo all’economia, mentre quei paesi che non hanno registrato alcuna ripresa dovrebbero proseguire con tali interventi.

L’eventuale abbandono degli stimoli nella maggior parte delle economie avanzate implica che una forte crescita economica asiatica, escludendo il Giappone, possa allontanare l’economia mondiale dalla sua attuale traiettoria. Tuttavia, è improbabile che una forte e persistente performance dei mercati emergenti asiatici sia sufficiente a garantire una solida ripresa globale. In effetti, i possibili rallentamenti futuri delle economie appartenenti al G7 metteranno a rischio anche la crescita nei mercati emergenti. Tale previsione è stata ignorata, malgrado gli ammonimenti da parte del Fondo monetario internazionali, delle Nazioni Unite e di altre istituzioni.

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