Iran : soyons moins passionnels, plus rationnels

PARIS – Depuis plus de trois ans, les négociations sur le programme nucléaire iranien sont dans l'impasse. Depuis six ans, les voix de la raison ne parviennent pas à se faire entendre, tandis que les passions et les illusions prennent le devant de la scène.

Des pays installés sur leur propre arsenal nucléaire semblent croire qu'ils peuvent donner des ordres à l'Iran - exemple-type du "Faites ce que je dis, pas ce que je fais". En Occident, une autre illusion courante est de croire que l'Iran va se soumettre aux pressions si elles deviennent suffisamment fortes. Quiconque connaît l'Iran sait que cela provoquera au contraire une réaction de défi.

Mais l'Iran lui-même n'est pas indemne d'illusions, notamment l'idée qu'il peut compter sur le soutien des pays non occidentaux, ou au moins d'une bonne partie des pays musulmans. Pourtant, à chaque étape de la crise, les supposés "amis" de l'Iran n'ont pas bougé. L'Iran a aussi cru qu'il pourrait détacher la France et peut-être l'Allemagne des USA – comme si l'un ou l'autre de ces pays allait risquer de déclencher la colère des Américains pour satisfaire un dirigeant tel que Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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