巴勒斯坦激进分子的现实主义礼物

为支持沙龙从加沙和部分西岸定居点的单方面撤军计划,布什政府全力支持以色列在边界和难民问题上的立场,这是巴以最后阶段谈判中最重要的两个问题。这一立场显然违反了布什政府信誓旦旦遵守的巴/以和平"路线图"计划。

这样的说法经不起推敲。布什总统向以色列保证,"在包括已经存在以色列人口中心这样的环境下,"以色列不必归还1967年侵占的所有领土。不仅如此,在布什看来,以色列不必为允许巴方难民重返以色列境内家园的问题发愁。相反,绝大多数难民都将在巴勒斯坦国内得到安置。

在巴勒斯坦现有的舆论环境下,沙龙的分离计划很可能增强哈马斯和巴方其它好战分子的力量。通过提出从定居点单方面撤军的计划,沙龙赋予巴勒斯坦好战分子以口实,宣称以色列是由于在武装斗争中失败而被迫屈服。实际上,我2004年4月的一次调查显示,三分之二的巴勒斯坦人认为这就是以军计划的实质。同样的调查显示,较之加沙地带的法塔赫民族运动,哈马斯得到了更多的公众支持。

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