Realismo en Iraqpor Joschka Fischer


Si Estados Unidos se apegara a su interés nacional, se retiraría de Iraq lo antes posible porque la guerra ya no puede ganarse. Está debilitando a la potencia líder de Occidente y fortaleciendo a sus enemigos. Pero Estados Unidos no puede retirarse sin que toda la región caiga en el caos.


Estados Unidos quería establecer un Iraq democrático. En cambio, tras una retirada de Estados Unidos, el país podría descomponerse, lo que tal vez conduciría a una “balcanización” del Medio Oriente con consecuencias extremadamente peligrosas para la toda la región.


Con la guerra en Iraq, Estados Unidos también buscaba iniciar una transformación democrática en todo el Medio Oriente. En cambio, ha ayudado a Irán a alcanzar un predominio regional que ese país jamás hubiera logrado por sí solo. Si Estados Unidos se retirara ahora, en vez de una transformación democrática, el Medio Oriente se enfrentaría a una guerra de todos contra todos por la hegemonía regional.
No hay indicios de que Bush logre entender esta amarga realidad en los meses restantes de su mandato. Si admitiera la derrota, su presidencia se derrumbaría. Por lo tanto, le heredará la guerra a su sucesor. Esto podría ser ventajoso para los fines internos de Bush pero, como política exterior, sólo conseguirá que aumente el riesgo de una explosión en el Medio Oriente.

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