Realismo sobre Rusia

BERLIN – Después de su victoria sobre Georgia, Rusia perseguirá su estrategia de revisar el orden post-soviético en lo que llama su “exterior cercano” aún con mayor perseverancia. Europa no debería hacerse ilusiones al respecto y debería empezar a prepararse. Pero, mientras la Unión Europea evalúa qué hacer, el realismo frío, y no las reacciones exageradas e histéricas, es lo que surte efecto.

Desafortunadamente, comparar la situación actual en el Cáucaso con la invasión rusa de Checoslovaquia en 1968 no da fe de este tipo de realismo. Ni Occidente ni la OTAN representan la amenaza estratégica decisiva que enfrenta Rusia, amenaza que proviene del sur islámico y del Lejano Oriente, en particular de la superpotencia en ascenso, China. Es más, la fortaleza de Rusia no es de ningún modo comparable con la de la ex Unión Soviética.

De hecho, demográficamente, Rusia está experimentando una caída dramática. Más allá de las exportaciones de materias primas, tiene poco que ofrecer a la economía global.

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