Tim Brinton

好动的人民币

北京—从2005年7月到去年12月,人民币一直在逐渐升值。但此后人民币出现了出人意料的贬值,连续11个交易日触及中国人民银行设定的日交易下限。尽管此后人民币又重新回到了缓慢升值的轨道,但其汇率变动的轨迹也许已经发生了永久改变。

只要中国存在贸易顺差和净外国直接投资流入,人民币就会承受升值压力。短期资本流对人民币汇率几乎没有影响。

原因有二。其一,由于中国卓有成效(尽管漏洞很多)的资本管制,短期“热钱”(即流入中国以套利、寻租和投机为目的的资本)无法迅速自由地进出。其次,短期资本流通常加强而不是削弱了人民币的生孩子压力,因为投机者在中国渐进的升值态度的指引下,都在赌人民币会升值。

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