Загадочное сжатие экономики Китая

КЕМБРИДЖ – Почти все страны мира пытаются ускорить рост экономики, а правительство Китая, напротив, пытается его замедлить до устойчивого уровня. Китай постепенно движется в сторону экономики, ориентированной на услуги и на внутренний спрос, поэтому замедление темпов роста является одновременно и неизбежным, и желательным. Однако трудности настолько велики, что никаких гарантий мягкой посадки не существует.

Рост экономики Китая зависит от состояния экономики его торговых партнеров, поэтому эффективность подобной модели роста, ориентированной на экспорт, должна снижаться. Как следствие, столь же неизбежно снижение рентабельности колоссальных инвестиций в инфраструктуру, большая часть которых направлена на развитие экспорта.

Хотя проблемы с загрязнением воздуха и нехваткой воды во многих регионах Китая стали очень острыми, качество жизни здесь, тем не менее, должно расти, также как и объемы потребления. Однако в экономике, где размер долга резко взлетел до отметки 200% ВВП, не просто начать снижение темпов роста, не вызвав тем самым масштабное банкротство амбициозных инвестиционных проектов. Даже в Китае, где власти накопили внушительную подушку финансовой безопасности, одного банкротства, сравнимого с падением банка Lehman Brothers, будет достаточно, чтобы спровоцировать серьезную панику.

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