Nečitelná čínská kontrakce

CAMBRIDGE – Zatímco prakticky všechny země na světě se snaží podpořit růst, čínská vláda se ho pokouší zpomalit na udržitelnou úroveň. V době, kdy se Čína mění v ekonomiku, která je tažená větší domácí poptávkou a více orientovaná na služby, je přechod na pomalejší trendový růst nevyhnutelný a zároveň žádoucí. V cestě však stojí obrovské překážky a nikdo by neměl brát měkké přistání za hotovou věc.

Čínská ekonomika oproti ekonomikám obchodních partnerů roste, a efektivnost jejího růstového modelu taženého exportem proto musí zákonitě slábnout. To jde ruku v ruce také s poklesem návratnosti masivních investic do infrastruktury, z nichž velká část je namířená na podporu exportního růstu.

Také spotřeba a kvalita života se musí zvýšit, ačkoliv znečištění ovzduší a nedostatek vody začínají být v mnoha oblastech Číny stále akutnější. V ekonomice, kde dluh explodoval na více než 200% HDP, není snadné postupně přibrzdit růst, a nezpůsobit přitom rozsáhlý krach ambiciózních investičních projektů. Dokonce i v Číně, kde má vláda hluboké kapsy, aby mohla utlumit pád, by jeden bankrot srovnatelný s pádem Lehman Brothers mohl vést k velké panice.

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