Quantitative Lockerung und der Renminbi

CAMBRIDGE – Die Strategie der „quantitativen Lockerung“, die die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve beschlossen hat, lässt den Wert des Dollars im Verhältnis zu anderen Währungen mit freien Wechselkursen absinken. Doch was bedeutet die neue Strategie der Fed für einen der wichtigsten Wechselkurse von allen – den zwischen Renminbi und Dollar und anderen Währungen?

Der Effekt der quantitativen Lockerung auf die Wechselkurse zwischen dem Dollar und Währungen mit freiem Wechselkurs ist ein vorhersehbares Ergebnis des Plans der Fed, die Dollar-Menge zu vergrößern. Der Anstieg des Dollar-Volumens führt dazu, dass der Wert jedes einzelnen Dollars relativ zu diesen Währungen fällt, da ihr Volumen konstant geblieben oder langsamer gestiegen ist.

Das Ziel der Fed mag sein, die Binnenkonjunktur in den USA anzukurbeln und das Risiko einer Deflation zu verringern. Doch, ob beabsichtigt oder nicht, wirkt sich die größere Dollar-Menge auch auf den internationalen Wert des Dollars aus. Amerikanische Investoren, die der Fed Anleihen verkaufen, werden die dabei erhaltenen Dollars diversifizieren wollen. Eine Form dieser Diversifizierung ist, ausländische Anleihen und Aktien zu kaufen und dadurch den Wert dieser Währungen in die Höhe zu treiben.

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