Paul Lachine

La flexibilización cuantitativa y la recuperación económica de Estados Unidos

CAMBRIDGE - No hay duda de que la economía estadounidense se recuperó con fuerza a finales de 2010. Pero, ¿cuánto de eso se debió a la política temporal de  la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. de la llamada "flexibilización cuantitativa"? ¿Y qué significa la respuesta para los EE.UU. en 2011?

Hasta el cuarto trimestre del año pasado, la recuperación económica de EE.UU. que comenzó en el verano de 2009 fue decididamente anémica. El crecimiento anual del PIB en los tres primeros trimestres de 2010 tuvo apenas un promedio de alrededor del 2,6%, la mayor parte de lo cual fue sólo llenado de inventarios. Sin la inversión en inventarios, el índice de crecimiento de las ventas finales fue en promedio menos del 1%.

Pero el cuarto trimestre fue muy diferente. El PIB anual aumentó en un 3,2% y el crecimiento de las ventas finales se disparó a un notable 7,1% interanual. Es cierto que gran parte de eso se debió a una fuerte disminución de las importaciones, pero incluso el índice de crecimiento de las ventas finales a los compradores nacionales aumentó a un saludable ritmo del 3,4%.

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