Paul Lachine

Politique monétaire non conventionnelle et reprise économique aux USA

CAMBRIDGE – Il n’y a aucun doute quant au fait que l’économie américaine s’est fortement reprise à la fin 2010. Mais dans quelle mesure cette reprise est-elle due à la politique non conventionnelle de « quantitative easing » menée temporairement par la Réserve Fédérale américaine ? Et quelles sont les conséquences de la réponse à la question précédente sur les perspectives économiques des USA en 2011 ?

Jusqu’au quatrième trimestre de l’année dernière, la reprise économique américaine, qui a commencé à l’été 2009, était franchement anémique. Durant les trois premiers trimestres de 2010, la croissance annuelle du PIB s’est élevée à seulement 2.6% environ – dont la plupart était juste une reconstitution de stock. Sans les investissements d’inventaires, le taux de croissance des ventes finales s’élevait à moins de 1%.

Mais le quatrième trimestre s’est révélé très différent. Le PIB annuel a augmenté de 3,2% et la croissance des ventes finales a bondi à un impressionnant 7,1% en base annuelle. Certes, une part importante de cette croissance était due à une forte diminution des importations ; toutefois, même le taux de croissance des ventes finales aux consommateurs domestiques a augmenté à un bon 3,4%.

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