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smart1_Mikhail Svetlov_Getty Images_putin Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

What Putin Sees in Trump

Any clear-eyed assessment by the Kremlin must conclude that a Donald Trump presidency is not in Russia’s interests. It may be fun to watch the US body politic squirm, and to gloat as America’s allies wring their hands, but a President Trump would make Vladimir Putin’s life far more difficult.

CAMBRIDGE – It is entirely possible that when Russian President Vladimir Putin gazes up at the stars at night and imagines the world of his dreams, he smiles at the thought of Donald Trump as US President. He may like the idea of an American leader who is focused on law and order at home rather than democracy-building abroad. He may even admire Trump’s swaggering leadership style, so reminiscent of his own.

But when he wakes from his reverie, Putin understands that it cannot possibly be in Russia’s interest for Trump to win in November. That’s why there cannot possibly be a serious Kremlin plan – relying on cyber or other means – to help orchestrate it.

Of course, it’s not hard to imagine that Russian hackers did find a way into the Democratic National Committee’s servers, or those used by Hillary Clinton’s campaign, as part of espionage efforts that target government, corporate, and political organizations of all kinds. In the twenty-first century, the Kremlin’s intelligence services would be accused of professional negligence if they weren’t vigorously attempting such attacks.

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    A Global Economy Without a Cushion

    Stephen S. Roach

    From 1990 to 2008, annual growth in world trade was fully 82% faster than world GDP growth. Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period, leaving the world economy more vulnerable to all-too-frequent shocks.