Argentine : Tir à vue sur les retraites ?

L'Argentine n'ayant plus accès au crédit depuis fin 2001, le gouvernement a pris des mesures désespérées pour essayer en vain d'éviter le désastre. Les fonds de pension privatisés crées en 1994 suite à la réforme de la sécurité sociale, les AFPJ, en ont été l'une des victimes. Ils sont constitués de comptes de retraites individuels en obligations et en actions, plus de 60% de ces titres étant d'origine gouvernementale au milieu de 2001. Or, le gouvernement a imposé une révision du calendrier de remboursement de ces titres et du jour au lendemain il les a convertis en pesos.

Cette " confiscation " est intervenue après plusieurs années au cours desquelles les titres gouvernementaux à haut risque ont eu un rendement élevé. Entre septembre 1994 (l'année de leur création) et janvier 2001, les AFJP ont eu un rendement moyen de 10,9% en dollars US, soit presque 600 points de base de plus que celui des bons du Trésor US à court terme.

Il y a une leçon évidente à retenir de l'expérience argentine : si des fonds de pension investissent essentiellement dans des obligations à haut risque du secteur public - une stratégie fréquente en Amérique latine lors du passage d'un régime de retraite par répartition financé par l'Etat à un régime par capitalisation - les remboursements sont menacés dès le début. Les fonds de pension peuvent faire l'objet d'une réglementation arbitraire, or c'était précisément la situation que la réforme de la sécurité sociale était supposée combattre.

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