Riots in Brazil Victor Moriyama/ZUMA Wire

Los asuntos políticos de la volatilidad financiera

LONDRES – Hace veinte y cuatro años, en medio de una reñida campaña presidencial estadounidense, el jefe de campaña de Bill Clinton resumió de manera sucinta el mensaje de su candidato: “Es la economía, estúpido”. Hoy en día, mientras los inversores se esfuerzan por comprender lo que está impulsando la volatilidad extrema en los mercados financieros, hay una explicación igualmente concisa para lo que ocurre: Son los estúpidos asuntos políticos.

Las políticas de los bancos centrales se han desplazado desde una posición que brindaba apoyo a los mercados a una que potencialmente los desestabiliza. Ahora los mercados están recurriendo a la reforma estructural y la política fiscal para obtener ayuda. En este escenario, los actuales desplazamientos de precios deben ser vistos a través del espectro de la geopolítica. Y, ese no es un panorama agradable.

En ningún otro lugar esto se hace más evidente que en los mercados del petróleo, donde los precios se han derrumbado; en la actualidad el nivel de precios, tanto del Brent como del crudo, ronda los $30 dólares estadounidenses por barril. La extendida caída del precio del petróleo, y los consiguientes temores de deflación, se citan como factores importantes detrás de la agitación general en los mercados. En enero, la correlación entre los precios del petróleo crudo y el índice S&P 500 alcanzó el nivel más alto desde el año 1990.

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