La política de la recuperación mundial en 2013

DAVOS – ¿Es posible que 2013 sea mejor que 2012 para la economía mundial? La respuesta, en principio, es sí. En la práctica, sin embargo, la respuesta puede ser más deprimente.

En Estados Unidos, la situación está dada para un crecimiento más sólido. El mercado de la vivienda finalmente se está recuperando. La Fed ha señalado que está preparada para implementar más medidas en favor del crecimiento y para reducir el desempleo. Todo lo que los demás responsables de políticas en EE. UU. tienen que hacer para garantizar que 2013 sea mejor que 2012 es evitar un gol en contra.

En especial, para eliminar la incertidumbre que continúa deprimiendo los gastos de consumo y capital, deben evitar los «precipicios fiscales» (ahora y en el futuro), los peligrosos mecanismos de secuestro, y las tonterías relacionadas con las autorizaciones periódicas para modificar los límites del endeudamiento. También deben establecer un plan creíble para la consolidación fiscal en el mediano plazo –uno que implique tanto mayor recaudación como reformas en el gasto, pero solo cuando la economía se haya fortalecido lo suficiente como para tolerar esas medidas.

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