Einen Schritt näher am britischen EU-Ausstieg?

LONDON – Das am 18. September anstehende Referendum über die Unabhängigkeit Schottlands kommt zu einer Zeit wachsenden Widerstands gegen einen Verbleib Großbritanniens in der Europäischen Union. Dies ist bedeutsam, weil Schottland der europafreundlichste Teil Großbritanniens ist.

So ergab eine im Juni durchgeführte Meinungsumfrage, dass sich bei einem Referendum über den britischen Verbleib in der EU zu diesem Zeitpunkt 47,1% der Wähler für einen Austritt ausgesprochen hätten und nur 39,4% dagegen. Eine Umfrage vom Februar 2014 jedoch ergab, dass in Schottland 48,7% für einen Verbleib in der EU stimmen würden und nur 35,4% für einen Austritt. Auch andere Umfragen zeigen durchgehend eine deutlich EU-freundlichere Haltung in Schottland als in England.

Natürlich wäre es verfrüht, eindeutige Schlussfolgerungen aus diesen Zahlen zu ziehen. Möglicherweise kommt es gar nicht zu dem vom britischen Premierminister David Cameron versprochene Referendum über einen EU-Austritt, und zwar unabhängig vom möglichen Erfolg (was immer das bedeuten soll) seiner versprochenen „Neuverhandlungen“ über die britischen Mitgliedschaftsbedingungen. Doch scheint sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines britischen Ausstiegs infolge verschiedener vordergründig unbedeutender Fragen zu erhöhen – was der Abstimmung in Schottland eine grundlegend andere Bedeutung verleiht.

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