朝鲜:危机还是希望?

马德里——在朝鲜领导人金正日逝世于国内一列火车上之后两天,韩国当局还对此一无所知。与此同时,美国官员似乎也好不到哪里去,国务院一开始仅仅承认是媒体首先报道了他的死讯。

韩国和美国情报机构没能获得任何消息固然体现了朝鲜体制的不透明,但同时也表明它们自身的无能。美国飞机和卫星日夜监视着朝鲜,朝韩边界则属于最先进的情报收集设备的覆盖范围。尽管如此,我们依然对朝鲜所知甚少,因为所有重要信息都掌握在有着保密癖的一小撮领导人手里。

朝鲜领导权的更迭发生在最不应该发生的时刻。众所周知,中国领导人希望金正日活得更长一些,以便理顺国内派系,为其子金正恩的接班赢得足够支持。

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