Payer pour le passé en 2005

Le début de chaque année correspond ŕ la haute saison pour les prévisionnistes économiques. A de rares exceptions prčs, les économistes de Wall Street tentent de fournir une interprétation aussi optimiste que le permettent les données : ils souhaitent que leurs clients achčtent des actions et des prévisions sombres ne permettent gučre de les vendre.

Mais męme les vendeurs prédisent une économie américaine plus faible en 2005 qu'en 2004. Je suis d'accord avec eux et je me range en fait du côté des pessimistes : il est fort probable qu'en 2005, nous commencions ŕ payer pour les erreurs passées.

La plus grande incertitude économique mondiale concerne le prix du pétrole. De toute évidence, les producteurs de pétrole ne sont pas parvenus ŕ anticiper la croissance de la demande en Chine, autant pour la sagesse et la prévoyance des marchés privés. Les problčmes du côté de l'offre au Moyen-Orient (et au Nigeria, en Russie et au Venezuela) jouent également un rôle tandis que la mésaventure de George W. Bush en Irak a accentué l'instabilité. Tandis que les prix ont légčrement chuté de leur point culminant, l'OPEP a fait comprendre qu'elle n'avait pas l'intention d'autoriser une baisse encore plus marquée.

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