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Uma América, duas nações

Nov 6, 2020 Richard Haass

NOVA IORQUE – Enquanto escrevo este artigo, há funcionários por todos os Estados Unidos que continuam a contar votos nas eleições presidenciais de 2020 dos EUA. Quando as contagens estiverem finalizadas, há recontagens e desafios legais que certamente se seguirão. Este cenário é esperado numas eleições muito disputadas que geraram uma participação eleitoral histórica.

Apenas os cidadãos podem votar no presidente dos EUA, mas a escolha afeta as pessoas de todo o mundo. Se, por um lado, é muito cedo para ter certeza dos resultados, por outro, não é prematuro explorar o que as eleições revelam sobre o país mais poderoso do mundo.

Vendo as coisas pelo lado positivo, os Estados Unidos continuam a ser uma democracia sólida. A participação dos eleitores foi elevada, apesar das restrições físicas associadas à pandemia de COVID-19. O processo parece estar a desenrolar-se conforme o planeado. A violência tem sido mínima. Os tribunais estão a investigar aquilo que parece ter sido decisões politicamente motivadas pelo serviço postal dos EUA para impedir a entrega dos votos provenientes de áreas com maior probabilidade de votarem a favor dos democratas. A declaração injustificada de vitória do presidente Donald Trump na noite de terça-feira ganhou pouca força, enquanto os seus apelos para interromperem a contagem (pelo menos nos estados onde ele lidera) parecem ter caído em saco roto.

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Richard Haass

Writing for PS since 2000
153 Commentaries

Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author, most recently, of The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens (Penguin Press, 2023).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 20 Comments on this article

Victor Phan Nov 13, 2020

The underlying reason why people voting for Biden is just simply because they hate President Trump. That's why they endorse Biden. Thanks to the ability of reaching billions of people in the whole circumference of the globe through many giant social networking sites, such as Facebook, Youtube, etc, the Left is capable of sowing division, hatred, and distortion within the American citizenry. We have been allured and brainwashed by those Leftists of things which are completely untrue and fictional. It's time we stood up together and inflict the Left's greatest propaganda machineries the biggest and devastating demolition it deserves. The Left is, without a shadow of a doubt, an evil in disguise.
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Yoshimichi Moriyama Nov 12, 2020

An international symposium was held in 1968. People such as Georg F. Kennan, Carl Kaysen, Stanley Hoffmann, Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., Daniel Bell and Kenneth Galbraith took part. Speeches, questions and answers were made into a book, The Endless Crisis: A Confrontation on America in the Seventies, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1970., which I read in Japanese translation.
I do not think some of the debates have not lost relevance. I liked Kennan's Political Hysteria and Oppression very much.
- Yoshimichi Moriyama Nov 12, 2020
  
  Correction:
  ...have not lost →　...have lost
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Henry Miller Nov 9, 2020

"Just when the consequences of his administration’s mishandling of the pandemic had become most severe..."

And what, precisely, should Trump's administration have done that's within the responsibility and authority granted by the Constitution to the Presidency?

Answer: Nothing. Read the Constitution--no responsibility is assigned the Presidency to deal with pandemics, and no authority.
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Bob Burke Nov 8, 2020

In one paragraph you assert "the voters were equally split between the two candidates". In the next paragraph you state "Joe Biden will probably win the popular vote by a wide margin". You were right the second time. Winning a majority (over half) of the popular vote, with a margin of 2.8% (and likely to widen) over your opponent is a convincing (if not overwhelming) victory by the standards of past US presidential elections.

The electoral college has served to create these mini-dramas in minor states which created an artificial sense of an excruciatingly close race stretching out over days. The electoral college is an utterly unnecessary, vestigial and dangerously undemocratic remnant of the past. The foolish media show with big maps, "red states and blue states", county-by-county analysis is all sound and fury -- melded with commerce -- signifying nothing. It is the popular vote, and only the popular vote, that has true meaning. Electoral votes are simply statistical trivia, without meaning.

Biden won convincingly.
- Michael Public Nov 9, 2020
  
  The popular vote counts for nothing in the America. It is a major problem, but until it goes away, there is even little point mentioning it.
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Mirek Fatyga Nov 8, 2020

I agree with Mr Haass that political conditions in the United States remain grave and the election of Joe Biden wins a temporary respite at best. It is even possible, though not yet certain, that the US entered the path of inexorable decline, similar to Argentina at the beginning of the XXth century.

Where I do disagree is that the United States consists of "two nations" that congenitally must be in conflict, forever, and this is the way it is. I think this may be a misreading of cause and effect.

The process of urbanization, which started in earnest with industrial revolution and accelerated with the development of industrial agriculture, does create tensions between "rural" and "urban" spheres. However, these differences can be ameliorated and bridged by the political system, or they can be exacerbated. The political divisions in the US are not inevitable, they have been created deliberately, for political gain. If we adopt this worldview ,rather than be resigned to an immutable force of nature, we can start working towards bridging the gap, with understanding that success is not assured, but failure will have grave consequences.

As a first step, I would suggest an immediate repeal of the Goodwin's Law. The Western World is currently facing re-emergence of Fascism assisted or caused by generational amnesia.

Fascism is a very effective political method, based on deliberate incitement of emotion, rather than rational argument. It is as simple as A,B,C. (A) -- find a scapegoat, (B) -- incite fear of A and hatred towards A, then (C) -- present yourself as the only savior from A . The application of this political method to society always leads to economic and social decline, always leads to repression of dissent, usually violent, sometimes leads to Hitler when conditions are right.

The primary tool of the trade in early days of the emergence of Fascism is propaganda, outright repression comes later, when Fascism either seizes power altogether, or gains enough strength to morph into Trumpism.

The primary source of American slide towards Fascism has been the Republican Party. This is not an assertion but a fact, acknowledged by some of the creators of republican propaganda campaigns who reflected upon their likely role in history and created the Lincoln Project. There are books on this subject already, written by the perpetrators themselves, and I am quite sure there is more to follow.

We need to define the problem we are facing before we can fight it effectively. Consequences of letting Fascism re-emerge in the Western World can go beyond horrific. There are approximately 3500 active nuclear warheads in the world, on something close to hair trigger alert, and total of ~14,000 warheads that could be made active on a relatively short notice, say few years of rapid rearmament campaign brought about by a new Hitler that manages to take over one of the major countries. As with Hitler, nobody will try to stop such a leader due to the startle factor until it is too late.

The US military is working on bringing down the nuclear threshold by developing tactical warheads, a process ordered by the Trump administration. The first "more usable", tactical warheads are being deployed on submarines. This is not just talk, not just a plan, but a present day reality.

I think this is enough for one post, meant to be a comment.
- Michael Public Nov 9, 2020
  
  Argentina was no great power and it will take a lot for America to fall. Remember that Rome survived by re-inventing itself -first by splitting the Empire - then by converting to the Holy Roman Empire i.e. to which all catholic countries had to answer - and finally it could be argued it endured in spirit in the British and French Empires - and therefore lives today as the American global hegemony. Great powers do not easily go away.
  - Mirek Fatyga Nov 10, 2020
    
    I do not think it will take that long for this "empire" to fall. Empires aren't what they used to be. The Roman Empire lasted ~1000 years, the British Empire lasted, arguably, ~200 years and most clearly did not re-invent itself, this US "empire" is ending at ~70, as did the Soviet Empire.
    
    The US is now an ungovernable country at the federal level. It's politics may be compared to ,say, Italy or Argentina, though even this could be an insult to these two. Meanwhile, the federal budget deficit in 2019 was 4.7% of the GDP, it will be 16% in 2020 including covid, and is projected to be 8.6% in 2021. Meanwhile again, the Pentagon is planning for 500 ship navy: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/10/07/5-things-know-about-pentagons-new-plan-500-ship-navy-fleet.html
    You can't make this stuff up.
    
    The US has entered a period in which it will be rapidly endangering the entire world. It has a politics of Italy (with apologies to Italy) and the military of the late Soviet Union ++ (or maybe squared). It appears to be congenitally incapable of reigning this military spending in, just like the late Soviet Union. This simply cannot go on, and everyone will very quickly realize this once Joe Biden gets into WH. The political system is so deadlocked, the two party system and the antiquated electoral system so unreformable, that I am not sure where to get any hope from. Perhaps from the States working together towards reform, but this is likely to be too little too late.
    
    I say this without any glee whatsoever. I live here. I grieve and despair over what has become of this country, particularly given that we are living in the nuclear era. But the reality is what it is.
    
    I make no firm predictions on the timeline. But the US remaining a world power much longer is just not very likely by my reckoning. My question actually is, how long can the US remain a unitary state. And I don't care what Warren Buffet says.
    - Michael Public Nov 10, 2020
      
      " as did the Soviet Empire."
      They persist in smaller form as Russia. Backed by nuclear power and a well trained army they still exercise de-facto control over many neighboring regions and absorbed peoples. Their empire in distant lands has mostly fallen by the wayside but to say they have ended is premature.
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    - Michael Public Nov 10, 2020
      
      "most clearly did not re-invent itself"
      It depends how you think of it. White-Anglo-Saxon-Protestants with World military supremacy who rule through colonialism/corporatism. The actors are different - the play is the same. Also - what exactly does a 'special relationship' mean?
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Bernhard Kopp Nov 7, 2020

I recognize that Mr. Haass is satisfied with the voter participation as it was traditionally dismal. This time it appears to be 60% and change. This is not really good yet. Elections should require a voter participation of at least 70-80% to be valid. I am well aware that this is all easy to say - but it should be said at this moment in time. God Bless America !
- Michael Public Nov 9, 2020
  
  In Australia it is compulsory to vote. The issue is that you cannot assume non voters participation would be of benefit - as it could be all the wrong types who don't vote. Also, in America - most blue or red states are a shoe-in - if I lived in CA I would not bother voting at all because I know the result ahead of time.
  - Bernhard Kopp Nov 9, 2020
    
    I would be all for compulsory voting, with a penalty as high as a one-day income. But, one would need a database to enforce the mandate, and this is another big obstacle. If the " demos " wants the " cratos " then they should see it as an obligation to participate.
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Sincere Concern Nov 7, 2020

I have read many articles like this one: one nation, two worlds. Obama says within seconds of his Netflix preview with David Letterman. “If you watch Fox News you live on a different planet.” I have seen claims of black America and white America. These same people claim it is Trump that divides us.

We live in the same nation, one world. The people with whom we disagree are our family members, our neighbors, our countrymen. We have had ideological divides since before our nation’s founding. That doesn’t make two Americas. It’s one of our defining features that people of differences live United by our aspirations for a better life.

This article, like others, serves not to unite the nation of differences, but instead to claim division and alienation. I disagree entirely with this characterization of America. We continue to be one nation United. We don’t let differences of opinion or anything else stop us from living, working, engaging in discourse, and solving problems together.

Now think long and hard about who claims we are divided because of our race, gender, sexual orientation, socioeconomic class, demographic, or politics, or how we think pandemics should be handled. Who claims “community” based on the above? Who uses “identity politics” to divide us? Who is disheartened when half of the nation disagrees with them? In some more hyperbolic articles, who claimed that we’re on the brink of a civil war? Trump? I don’t think so.

I am a conservative living in Broward County Florida (one of the most liberal counties in the nation). I get along with my neighbors just fine. We still live in the same neighborhood. Our kids play together. We talk politics. We’re Americans. It’s what we do. We’re a diverse nation in every sense of the word. It doesn’t mean we’re divided.
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Yoshimichi Moriyama Nov 7, 2020

Looking at things going on in America across the Pacific, everything is obscure. I do not know much about American history, society and culture. Division is far deeper than Mr. Haass suggested here that it was.

The fundamental problem is "Who Are We?" (Samuel Huntington. Free ``Press, 2005). Americans have to have one cultural identity. They have to decide whether they want to remain American in the traditional sense or, say, Venezuelan.
- Michael Public Nov 9, 2020
  
  There was a bloody civil war about 160 years ago. The military victory went to the liberals who live on today as the Democrats while the losing South live on as the Republicans. It is little wonder that the hated runs deep. Conflict was kept at bay for a long time by rising incomes and global fortunes of the US - but in the 90's and 2000's a lot of factory jobs left to China leaving many Republican regions with shrinking incomes and influence - something Japan has also had to come to terms with since the 80's
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 7, 2020

Richard Haass says this week’s elections show how deeply divided America is. However, the country’s division “is not for the most part along economic lines. People of all classes voted for both candidates, and demographic, gender, and racial voting patterns were not as one-sided as many predicted. Where they differed mainly concerned remedies.” Although Trump will likely lose, he has won some 69 million popular votes, four million less than Joe Biden, despite his disastrous handling of the pandemic.
Voters have been “near-equally split” between the two candidates. Trump’s popularity triggers the fear that he might remain a formidable force in politics even if he is voted out of office, and that “this division is likely to lead to divided government.” While Biden will take the White House, and Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, the Senate will most likely remain Republican. Moreover, “governorships and state legislatures are near evenly split between the two parties (Republicans hold a slight advantage).”
The author says, “Americans increasingly dwell in separate worlds. They have sorted themselves into communities and regions with those of similar views. Each world tends to watch its own cable television channels, listen to its own radio stations and podcasts, and visit its own websites. And the absence of a national civics curriculum facilitates sorting across generations.” Sadly, Trump is not a unifying figure, he has instead sowed discord and pitted people against each other to remain relevant.
So far Trump has denied his defeat and has done “his best to salt the earth and delegitimize the election results, charging fraud despite his inability to produce any evidence. Many of his supporters will refuse to accept the legitimacy of a Biden presidency. It is quite possible that Trump will never concede the race, much less attend the swearing in of his successor.” Despite the enormous challenges Biden will face, his quality as a centrist Democrat could be an asset in dealing with Republicans. Yet it would not resonate with the progressive wing of his party.
America needs reforms, because the political system is no longer unrepresentative of today’s reality on the ground. As Republicans stand to lose their minority rule without an electoral majority, they fight tooth and nail to defend their partisan interests. Sadly reaching consensus may well be a wishful thinking, because Republicans want Democrats to fail, so that they could win big in 2024.
According to the author, “educational levels are clearly an indicator of political orientation, as is geography, with Republican voters more likely to live in outer suburbs and rural regions and Democrats in metropolitan areas. Culture, though, may account for more in American politics than anything else. For the record, foreign policy did not seem to have mattered much in the campaign, except to mobilize specific constituencies, such as South Florida’s large Cuban and Venezuelan communities,” which have overwhelmingly voted for Trump, becaue he instilled fear by warning them against a “socialist” administration under Biden.
The US used to be the beacon of freedom for the world. Now many Americans feel that their country has become a failed state, sliding into a civil war, with radicals on the left and right fighting each other over identity and ideology in Congress and in the streets. Even wearing a mask amid a pandemic divides public opinion.
If the country can not reconcile their differences and unite, it may well be better off breaking up. California, which has the world’s fifth largest economy, could form a confederation of Democratic states together with New York and other states on the East Coast. Republicans could govern the Midwest, Texas, Florida and other conservative southern states.
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