Graissage des finances de la Russie

La situation pétrolière mondiale est particulièrement intéressante à l'heure actuelle. Les prix du pétrole, qui avoisinent 30 dollars le baril, restent élevés même si une économie mondiale faible signifie que la demande mondiale est peu importante. La précédente opinion à la mode qui voulait que la saisie par les Etats-Unis des ressources pétrolières irakiennes détruise l'OPEP et fasse dégringoler le prix du pétrole s'est révélée dénuée de fondement. Même avec une sécurité accrue, il faudrait cinq ans pour exploiter pleinement le pétrole de l'Irak. Avec une économie américaine qui se redresse énergiquement, le prix du pétrole doit rester élevé, voire même augmenter davantage, dans un avenir prévisible.

Ainsi, l'annonce faite par le ministre des Finances russe, Alexei Kudrin, qui déclare que la Russie va lancer un fond de stabilisation du pétrole, vient à point nommé. Cela signifie que le fond peut s'attendre à plusieurs années excédentaires. Il représente à la fois une opportunité et un danger.

Un fond pétrolier doit être considéré comme un instrument de stabilisation macroéconomique, indépendant des flux de revenus standard. Aujourd'hui, la majorité des ministres des Finances du monde entier se sont engagés à équilibrer leur budget sur l'ensemble du cycle commercial. Les revenus gouvernementaux doivent correspondre aux dépenses gouvernementales lorsque l'économie croît normalement.

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