Oil drill in field.

石油价格和全球增长

坎布里奇—2015年最大的经济意外是全球石油价格暴跌并没有带来更大的全球增长提振。尽管油价从2014年6月的每桶115美元下跌到2015年11月底的45美元,但大部分宏观经济模型都表明,其对全球增长的影响要小于预期——只有全球GDP的0.5%。

好消息是这一积极但微不足道的增长效应在2016年仍将存在。坏消息是低油价将给主要石油出口国带来更大的压力。

石油价格近期下跌与1985-1986年增长驱动的下跌如出一辙,当时,欧(沙)佩(特)克(阿)成(拉)员(伯)决定取消减产以重新赢得市场份额。它也可以与2008-2009年全球金融危机后的需求驱动的暴跌相比。对于需求因素引起的油价下跌,我们不可能预期会带来重大积极影响;石油价格与其说是驱动全球经济的外生力量,不如说是一个自动稳定器。另一方面,供给冲击应该产生重大积极影响。

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