Change in Private Sector Employment (2008-2012)

奥巴马复苏?

美国剑桥—11月的美国大选正在快速临近,共和党候选人正在挑战总统奥巴马,说其从2009年1月以来一直秉承的政策并未支持经济从衰退中复苏。他们声称,要是说奥巴马的政策有什么效果的话,那就是他的财政刺激、银行援助和美联储主席伯南克的激进货币政策把情况弄得更糟了。

奥巴马的民主党支持者反驳说,其政策避免了第二次大萧条,此后美国经济一直在稳步走出泥坑。与此同时,中立观察者的代表观点是现在下定论为时过早,因为你不知道没有奥巴马的政策会发生什么事情。

这么说也许是合适的:政府政策尽管不足以将经济快速拉回健康的轨道,但也阻止了衰退的加速。但中立观察者也没有说错:你无法证明没有这些政策会怎样。此外,政府政策很少能够马上对经济产生重大影响,这一点也是真理。

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