Abenomika poevropsku

NEW YORK – Zvolení Šinzó Abeho japonským premiérem před dvěma lety vedlo k nástupu „abenomiky,“ třívrstvého plánu na záchranu ekonomiky před kolotočem stagnace a deflace. Tři složky – či „šípy“ – abenomiky tvoří mohutná měnová stimulace ve formě kvantitativního a kvalitativního uvolňování (QQE) včetně posílení úvěrů pro soukromý sektor, krátkodobá fiskální stimulace, po níž následuje konsolidace s cílem snížit schodky a zajistit udržitelnost veřejného dluhu, a strukturální reforma na podporu nabídkové strany a potenciálního růstu.

Na základě nedávného projevu prezidenta Evropské centrální banky Maria Draghiho v Jackson Hole se teď zdá, že ECB chystá pro eurozónu podobný plán. První součástí „draghinomiky“ je urychlení strukturálních reforem nezbytných k popohnání růstu potenciálního výstupu eurozóny. Pokrok u takto zásadních reforem je zatím neuspokojivý, v některých zemích (například ve Španělsku a Irsku) bylo vynaloženo větší úsilí, kdežto v jiných menší (namátkou zmiňme Itálii a Francii).

Draghi teď ale připouští, že pomalé, nevyrovnané a chudokrevné zotavení eurozóny není pouze odrazem strukturálních problémů, nýbrž také cyklických faktorů, které více závisejí na agregátní poptávce než na mezích agregátní nabídky. Nezbytná jsou tak rovněž opatření k posílení poptávky.

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