Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.
纽约—两年前,安倍晋三当选为日本首相,启动了被称为“安倍经济学”的三管齐下计划,试图让日本经济走出滞涨和通缩困局。安倍经济学的三个组成部分——或三支“箭”——包括以量化和定性宽松(QQE)为形式的大规模货币刺激(包括向私人部门提供更多信用);短期财政刺激以及随后的整合以降低赤字、使公共债务可持续;以及旨在强化供给面和潜在增长的结构性改革。
根据欧洲央行行长德拉吉在杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)的最新讲话,欧洲央行也为欧元区准备了类似的计划。“德拉吉经济学”的第一个要素是加速必要的结构性改革以提振欧元区潜在产出增长。这些关键改革方面的进展一直令人失望,有的国家用力多(如西班牙和爱尔兰),有的国家用力少(意大利和法国是其中之二)。
但德拉吉现在认识到,欧元区复苏之所以缓慢、不平衡又无力,其原因并不只限于结构性问题,还有周期性因素,而对于周期性因素,更重要的是总需求而不是总供给约束。因此,增加需求的措施也是必不可少的。
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