Crecimiento lento con pocos riesgos de cola

NUEVA YORK – La economía global tuvo otro año difícil en 2013. El crecimiento por debajo de la tendencia de las economías avanzadas continuó, y la producción subió a una tasa promedio anual de aproximadamente 1%, mientras que muchos mercados emergentes experimentaron una desaceleración hacia un crecimiento por debajo de la tendencia del 4,8%. Después de un año de crecimiento global inferior a lo normal del 2,9%, ¿qué tiene preparado el 2014 para la economía mundial?

La buena noticia es que el desempeño económico se recuperará modestamente tanto en las economías avanzadas como en los mercados emergentes. Luego de haberse beneficiado de medio siglo de desapalancamiento doloroso del sector privado (hogares, bancos y compañías no financieras), un drenaje fiscal menor (con excepción de Japón) y políticas monetarias acomodaticias, las economías avanzadas crecerán a un ritmo anual cercano al 1,9%.

Es más, los llamados riesgos de cola (sacudidas de baja probabilidad y alto impacto) serán menos salientes en 2014. La amenaza, por ejemplo, de una implosión de la eurozona, otro cierre del gobierno o una pelea por el techo de la deuda en Estados Unidos, un aterrizaje forzoso en China o una guerra entre Israel e Irán por la proliferación nuclear, será mucho más tenue.

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