Медленный рост и малые риски

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Для мировой экономики прошедший 2013 год стал таким же трудным, как и предыдущие. Экономический рост развитых стран остался ниже среднего, с ростом производительности труда в среднем около 1% в год, а многие рынки развивающихся стран испытали замедление и 4,8% роста, который уже считался ниже среднего. После года низкого мирового экономического роста, который в целом составлял 2,9%, чего следует глобальной экономике ожидать от нового 2014 года?

Есть и хорошие новости: экономическое производство улучшится, хоть и в скромных размерах, как в странах с развитой экономикой, так и у развивающихся стран. Развитые экономики будут расти с годовым темпом ближе к 1,9%, извлекая выгоду из болезненного сокращения доли займа средств у частного сектора (частников, банков, а также нефинансовых фирм), которое длилось половину десятилетия, из меньших налоговых изъятий (за исключением Японии), и за счет поддержания гибкой денежно-кредитной политики.

Более того, так называемые «хвостовые риски» (тяжелые удары по экономике, но имеющие незначительную вероятность возникновения) будут менее ощутимыми в 2014 году. К примеру, угрозы краха еврозоны, второго дефолта правительства или противостояния о потолке госдолга в Соединенных Штатах, «жесткой посадки» в Китае, или войны между Израилем и Ираном из за распространения ядерного оружия, будут гораздо более сдержанными.

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