Croissance lente, risques à courte durée

NEW YORK – L'économie mondiale a connu une nouvelle année difficile en 2013. La croissance des économies avancées inférieure au niveau tendanciel s'est maintenue, la production a augmenté à un taux annuel moyen d'environ 1%, tandis que de nombreux marchés émergents ont connu un ralentissement de la croissance au niveau tendanciel de 4,8%. Après une année en deçà de la croissance mondiale de 2,9%, que réserve 2014 à l'économie mondiale ?

La bonne nouvelle est que la performance économique reprendra modestement pour les économies avancées et les marchés émergents. Les économies avancées bénéficiant d'une demi-décennie de désendettement douloureux du secteur privé (des ménages, des banques et entreprises non financières), d'un freinage fiscal plus faible (à l'exception du Japon) et du maintien de mesures monétaires accommodantes, vont connaître une croissance annuelle proche de 1,9%.

En outre, les fameux « risques extrêmes » (les chocs à faible probabilité et à fort impact) seront moins importants en 2014. Par exemple, les risques d'implosion de la zone euro, d'un nouveau blocage des services publics (shutdown) ou d'une bataille sur le plafond de la dette aux États-Unis, d'une transition brutale en Chine ou d'une guerre entre Israël et l'Iran sur la prolifération nucléaire seront beaucoup plus modérés.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/AfQQ7d9/fr;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now