Croissance lente, risques à courte durée

NEW YORK – L'économie mondiale a connu une nouvelle année difficile en 2013. La croissance des économies avancées inférieure au niveau tendanciel s'est maintenue, la production a augmenté à un taux annuel moyen d'environ 1%, tandis que de nombreux marchés émergents ont connu un ralentissement de la croissance au niveau tendanciel de 4,8%. Après une année en deçà de la croissance mondiale de 2,9%, que réserve 2014 à l'économie mondiale ?

La bonne nouvelle est que la performance économique reprendra modestement pour les économies avancées et les marchés émergents. Les économies avancées bénéficiant d'une demi-décennie de désendettement douloureux du secteur privé (des ménages, des banques et entreprises non financières), d'un freinage fiscal plus faible (à l'exception du Japon) et du maintien de mesures monétaires accommodantes, vont connaître une croissance annuelle proche de 1,9%.

En outre, les fameux « risques extrêmes » (les chocs à faible probabilité et à fort impact) seront moins importants en 2014. Par exemple, les risques d'implosion de la zone euro, d'un nouveau blocage des services publics (shutdown) ou d'une bataille sur le plafond de la dette aux États-Unis, d'une transition brutale en Chine ou d'une guerre entre Israël et l'Iran sur la prolifération nucléaire seront beaucoup plus modérés.

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